Finding the exact outcome of a sporting event is very difficult because there are many factors that can determine the outcome, but none can be determined accurately. For sport picks, an approach involves determining the probability analising the previous results of the both teams. Some punters prefer to study the informations qualitative, highlighting key results which may influence the outcome of a match. Others prefer to study the informations quantitative with a numerical approach, in what is called a rating system.
A rating system is a quantitative measure of the superiority if a team from it's opponent. This superiority is determined by analizyng and comparing some aspects of past performances of both parties. Rating systems vary depending on how this superiority is calculated. The simplest method is made by comparison of the ranking points, the rank or goals scored and received, while more complex methods are based on statistics of previous games, including shots on goal, corners and
even ball possesion, if this kind of data is available.
A rating system based on the difference of goals is calculated by analyzing the number of goals scored an received by the boath teams in a number of matches. A goal always worth a goal, but if it's scored against Manchester United at Old Trafford, or is registered against Leicester at home. Power rating systems solve this problem by proportioning the value of each goal scored according to the power of the adversary against wich is registered. Similary, goals conceded against a stonger opponent will count less in the rating system unless it's received against a weak opponent. For example, Manchester City mau have in the last five matches 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 8 received. A recent unimpressive form, but if these matches were played against Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham, we will expect better performances if these mathces were played against weaker opponents such as Charlton, Reading, Sheffield United, West Brom and Fulham.
Succesfull predictions are based on several factors, including statistical analysis, motivational and psychological factors, team news, injuries, suspensions and recent form. By some simple calculations, analyzing the performances of home and away teams we can find the chances of each possible outcome. Suppose a match between FC Bruges and Lokeren, Brugge has played 10 games at home with 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Lokeren also played 10 mathces away having 1 win, 3 draws and 6 defeats.
Bruges: V = 7, D = 2, Df = 1
Lokeren: V = 1, D = 3, Df = 6
T = 20
where: V = victories, D = draws, Df = defeats, T = Total matches taken into consideration
Brugge Win:
7 + 6 = 13
100/ 20 x 13 = 5 x 13 = 65%
Draw:
2 +3 = 5
100: 20 x 5 = 5 x 5 = 25%
Lokeren Win:
1 + 1 = 2
100: 20 x 2 = 5 x 2 = 10%
We will transform the results into odds, we have:
Brugge win: 100 / 65 = 1.54
Draw: 100 / 25 = 4.00
Lokeren win: 100 / 10 = 10.00
Of course it is not that simple. If it were so easy to pick the results, bookmakers would have gone bankrupt. The example above is just the beginning, you just have to use complex formulas to create a successful rating system, a rating system that can be better than the one that betting agencies use. Remember just one thing, if your results are different from the betting agencies odds, this not means that your wrong, you have to test your results, and see with what odds (yours or betting agency) you make more profit.
A rating system based on the difference of goals is calculated by analyzing the number of goals scored an received by the boath teams in a number of matches. A goal always worth a goal, but if it's scored against Manchester United at Old Trafford, or is registered against Leicester at home. Power rating systems solve this problem by proportioning the value of each goal scored according to the power of the adversary against wich is registered. Similary, goals conceded against a stonger opponent will count less in the rating system unless it's received against a weak opponent. For example, Manchester City mau have in the last five matches 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 8 received. A recent unimpressive form, but if these matches were played against Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham, we will expect better performances if these mathces were played against weaker opponents such as Charlton, Reading, Sheffield United, West Brom and Fulham.
Succesfull predictions are based on several factors, including statistical analysis, motivational and psychological factors, team news, injuries, suspensions and recent form. By some simple calculations, analyzing the performances of home and away teams we can find the chances of each possible outcome. Suppose a match between FC Bruges and Lokeren, Brugge has played 10 games at home with 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Lokeren also played 10 mathces away having 1 win, 3 draws and 6 defeats.
Bruges: V = 7, D = 2, Df = 1
Lokeren: V = 1, D = 3, Df = 6
T = 20
where: V = victories, D = draws, Df = defeats, T = Total matches taken into consideration
Brugge Win:
7 + 6 = 13
100/ 20 x 13 = 5 x 13 = 65%
Draw:
2 +3 = 5
100: 20 x 5 = 5 x 5 = 25%
Lokeren Win:
1 + 1 = 2
100: 20 x 2 = 5 x 2 = 10%
We will transform the results into odds, we have:
Brugge win: 100 / 65 = 1.54
Draw: 100 / 25 = 4.00
Lokeren win: 100 / 10 = 10.00
Of course it is not that simple. If it were so easy to pick the results, bookmakers would have gone bankrupt. The example above is just the beginning, you just have to use complex formulas to create a successful rating system, a rating system that can be better than the one that betting agencies use. Remember just one thing, if your results are different from the betting agencies odds, this not means that your wrong, you have to test your results, and see with what odds (yours or betting agency) you make more profit.
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